Does the inclusion of foreign-based players influence the performance of National teams at AFCON tournaments?

Team composition in sports rarely considers the significant mix of players in a national team's tournament performance. This study theorises that the mere inclusion of foreign-based nationals is not enough to guarantee team success, especially in the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) tournaments. Using panel data on AFCON records of participating national teams from 1990 to 2025 in an ordinal logit regression, we reveal that an over-reliance on either foreign-based nationals or local players decreases the Odds of finishing in the top four and subsequently winning the tournament. Drawing on social capital, modernisation, dependency, performance and systems theories, the study reveals that there is more to team composition and success at tournaments than the mere inclusion of foreign-based nationals. The study finds a positive relationship between team experience, measured by the number of appearances made in previous tournaments, and team performance. The study provides useful information for coaches, managers, federations and scouts to have a good mix of team composition. Perhaps the playing time or activeness of foreign-based nationals should be considered before their inclusion in the squad. This makes room for future team composition research to consider the skill sets, experience, techniques, and knowledge acquired as a recipe for team performance.