Does water scarcity drive conflict? The Bawku area case in the Savannah ecological zone, Ghana

Background

In most African countries, the changing climate is purported to have been an underlying cause of water scarcity. It is a major constraint in the dry seasons, especially in the savanna agro-ecological zone of Ghana. Notwithstanding this challenge, there is a paucity of research on how water scarcity may be a trigger of conflict in the region. The present study therefore attempts to unravel how water scarcity and conflict connect in Ghana’s Bawku area in the Upper East Region.

Method

The study adopted a mixed-method approach using both quantitative and qualitative datasets. For the quantitative data, gauge station temperature and rainfall data were collected from the Ghana Meteorological Agency for the study area. SPI and linear regression were performed using Drinc Standalone and Excel, respectively. Sixteen focus group discussions (FGDs) and 15 in-depth interviews (IDIs) were conducted for purposively selected participants in the study area for the qualitative analysis. The data was analysed using an inductive thematic approach with the help of NVivo (v.11).

Results

The results show an increase in rainfall (p = 0.163, R²=0.051) and temperature (p = 0.003, R²=0.213) patterns during the study period with an annual increase of 2.72 mm and 0.023 °C, respectively. Residents’ perspectives on climate change, however, contradict the rainfall pattern. Residents have a comfortable livelihood during the wet season but face major water constraints in the dry season. No violent conflict could be attributed to water scarcity, but minor skirmishes between Lansa and Kuka, and around community boreholes and dams, were common.

Conclusion

The study found that latent conflicts resulting from scarcity of water were prominent in the ethnically polarised society of the Bawku area but not violent. We recommend that efforts to mitigate this latent conflict should include climate sensitivity and local responses to water governance and management.